Cropping Shifts as a Response to Updated Climate Believs

Cropping Shifts as a Response to Updated Climate Beliefs

Project Summary

Modelling the impact of climate change on agriculture requires an understanding of how farmers invest in adaptation and the costs and benefits of these investments. One possible adaptation to climate change is shifting to new crops or adopting cropping rotations that may be more environmentally and economically suitable to new climates in the region. Adaptation requires individuals to recognize the threat a changing climate poses to their well-being and respond accordingly. Extreme weather events may be especially salient and play an outsized role in this process. This work will analyze how GL rural communities have responded to extreme weather events through shifts in crop cultivation. Research questions: 1) How do producers and rural communities learn about climatic threats through their experiences of extreme weather (floods, droughts, heat waves, etc.)? 2) Do producers in the GL region shift land use after experiencing extreme climate events? and 3) What are the largest barriers to adaptation in the agricultural sector and what communities are most impacted by these barriers?

PROJECT ACCOMPLISHMENTS
  • Two key analyses are anticipated for this product. (1) A statistical model of crop choice in the aftermath of extreme weather events using satellite landcover data (Cropland Data Layer) and gridded weather data (PRISM) in the Upper Midwest. Data have been collected and preliminary models are being designed. (2) A survey of several hundred Michigan farmers on their perceptions of climate change. This survey has now been completed and the results are in the process of being analyzed.
RESEARCH FINDINGS
  • Preliminary findings suggest many Michigan farmers have changed their perceptions about the likelihood of future climate change in response to previous extreme weather events. 
GLISA CONTRIBUTION

GLISA is leading this project. 

Project Partners

Collaborators include Jeffrey Andresen (GLISA, MSU Geography), William Baule (GLISA, Texas A&M), Scott Swinton (MSU AFRE), Natalie LoDuca (MSU AFRE)

GLISA Contact

Matthew Gammans, Co-Principle Investigator, [email protected]