Climate Trends in Great Lakes Region References

The average temperature, frost-free season change, total precipitation, and heavy precipitation events for the Great Lakes region from 1951-2024. Please refer to the Historical Trend Calculations at the end of the page.

Climate Trends

This page provides references for the points in GLISA’s Climate Trends in the Great Lakes Region fact sheet. The bullet points from the fact sheet are shown here with their respective reference(s) listed below each statement.

Temperature
Precipitation
Extreme Weather
Algal Blooms
Fish & Wildlife
Forests
Transportation

Public Health
Snow, Ice Cover, & Lake Temperature
Lake Levels
Agriculture
Water Availability
Water Quality & Stormwater Management
Energy & Industry
Tourism & Recreation

Temperature

Since 1951, annual average air temperatures have increased by 2.9°F (1.6°C) in the U.S. Great Lakes region.

See Historical Trend Calculations statement at the end of the page.

Winters experienced the greatest temperature increase compared to the warming trends in other seasons.

Marvel, K., W. Su, R. Delgado, S. Aarons, A. Chatterjee, M.E. Garcia, Z. Hausfather, K. Hayhoe, D.A. Hence, E.B. Jewett, A. Robel, D. Singh, A. Tripati, and R.S. Vose, 2023: Ch. 2. Climate trends. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH2

By mid-century (2050), average air temperatures are projected to increase by 3.0°F to 5.8°F (1.7°C to 3.2°C) relative to the late 20th century.

See Future Trend Calculations statement at the end of the page.

By the end of the century (2100), average air temperatures are projected to increase by 6.3°F to 11.4°F (3.5°C to 6.3°C) relative to the late 20th century.

See Future Trend Calculations statement at the end of the page.

Precipitation

Since 1951, annual total precipitation has increased by 15% in the U.S. Great Lakes region.

See Historical Trend Calculations statement at the end of the page.

Future projections suggest total precipitation changes ranging from -0.3 to +4.2 inches relative to the late 20th century. Seasonal variability will change, becoming more erratic during the summer, increasing contrast between wet and dry conditions.

See Future Trend Calculations statement at the end of the page.

Wilson, A.B., J.M. Baker, E.A. Ainsworth, J. Andresen, J.A. Austin, J.S. Dukes, E. Gibbons, B.O. Hoppe, O.E. LeDee, J. Noel, H.A. Roop, S.A. Smith, D.P. Todey, R. Wolf, and J.D. Wood, 2023: Ch. 24. Midwest. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH24

Reduced lake ice cover and enhanced evaporation may lead to increased lake-effect snowfall in the near-term, but rising temperatures will cause more winter precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow across the region by the late century.

USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6

Wright, D. M., D. J. Posselt, and A. L. Steiner, 2013: Sensitivity of lake-effect snowfall to lake ice cover and temperature in the Great Lakes region. Monthly Weather Review, 141, 670–689, doi:10.1175/mwr-d-12-00038.1

Vavrus, S., M. Notaro, and A. Zarrin, 2013: The role of ice cover in heavy lake-effect snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as simulated by RegCM4. Monthly Weather Review, 141, 148–165, doi: 10.1175/mwr-d-12-00107.1

Extreme Weather

The frequency and intensity of some severe weather events (i.e., extreme precipitation) have increased, a trend that is expected to continue in the future.

See Historical Trend Calculations statement at the end of the page

The amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1% of storms increased by 36% in the U.S. Great Lakes region between the periods of 1951-1980 and 1991-2020.

See Historical Trend Calculations statement at the end of the page

More severe storms may have a negative economic impact due to resulting damages and increased costs of preparation, clean up, and business disruption.

USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6

Public Health

Heat waves and increased humidity amplify the risks of heat-related deaths and illnesses.

Ebi, K.L., J.M. Balbus, G. Luber, A. Bole, A. Crimmins, G. Glass, S. Saha, M.M. Shimamoto, J. Trtanj, and J.L. White-Newsome, 2018: Human Health. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II[Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 539–571. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH14

More storm activity and flooding increase the risk of water-source contamination and waterborne illnesses.

Air pollution, from ground-level ozone (O3) and fine particles from particulate matter (PM2.5), is linked to respiratory irritation.

West, J.J., C.G. Nolte, M.L. Bell, A.M. Fiore, P.G. Georgopoulos, J.J. Hess, L.J. Mickley, S.M. O’Neill, J.R. Pierce, R.W. Pinder, S. Pusede, D.T. Shindell, and S.M. Wilson, 2023: Ch. 14. Air quality. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH14

Chakraborty, J., 2022: Disparities in exposure to fine particulate air pollution for people with disabilities in the US. Science of The Total Environment, 842, 156791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156791

Tessum, C.W., D.A. Paolella, S.E. Chambliss, J.S. Apte, J.D. Hill, and J.D. Marshall, 2021: PM2.5 polluters disproportionately and systemically affect people of color in the United States. Science Advances, 7 (18), 4491. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf4491

Wu, X., R.C. Nethery, M.B. Sabath, D. Braun, and F. Dominici, 2020: Air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: Strengths and limitations of an ecological regression analysis. Science Advances, 6 (45), 4049. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd4049

Some people may move to the Great Lakes region because of abundant natural resources and relatively low exposure to climate stressors, but the rate and magnitude of in-migration
remains uncertain.

Van Berkel, D., S. Kalafatis, B. Gibbons, M. Naud, M.C. Lemos, 2022: Planning for Climate Migration in Great Lake Legacy Cities. Earth’s Future, 10(10), e2022EF002942. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002942

Snow, Ice Cover, & Lake Temperature

Summer lake surface temperatures have increased in recent decades. Lake Superior summer temperatures increased by 4.8°F (2.7°C) from 1979 to 2023, the most of any of the Great Lakes.

Mccormick, M.J., Fahnenstiel, G.L. Recent climatic trends in nearshore water temperatures in the St. Lawrence Great Lakes (1999) Limnology and Oceanography, 44 (3 I), pp. 530-540. Cited 78 times.
doi: 10.4319/lo.1999.44.3.0530

USGCRP Third National Climate Assessment Midwest Chapter: Increase Risks to the Great Lakes https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest

Austin, J.A., and S.M. Colman, 2007: Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback. Geophysical Research Letters

Since the 1990s, less annual average ice cover has been observed on the Great Lakes. However, with strong year-to-year variability, years with high ice coverage are still possible.

Mason, L.A., Riseng, C.M., Gronewold, A.D. et al., Fine-scale spatial variations in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Climatic Change (2016) 138: 71. doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2

Snowfall has decreased, except in lake-effect zones, where warmer lakes and declining ice cover contribute to increased lake-effect snowfall.

USGCRP Third National Climate Assessment Midwest Chapter: Increase Risks to the Great Lakes https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest

Lake Levels

Lake level fluctuations on the Great Lakes are mainly driven by the competing balance of precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, which make up the lakes’ net basin supply.

Deacu, D., Klyszejko, E., Spence, C., Blanken, P., 2012. Predicting the Net Basin Supply to the Great Lakes with a Hydrometeorological Model. Bull Amer Met Soc, pp. 1739-1759, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-11-0151.1

After a period of low lake levels from the 1990s to 2010s, the lakes rose at an unprecedented rate between 2014-2020, which broke several high water level records and caused widespread flooding and severe shoreline erosion throughout the basin. By the end of 2024, all lakes had fallen to near-average levels.

Gronewold, A. D., J. Bruxer, D. Durnford, J. P. Smith, A. H. Clites, F. Seglenieks, S. S. Qian, T. S. Hunter, and V. Fortin (2016), Hydrological drivers of record-setting water level rise on Earth’s largest lake system, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4026–4042, doi: 10.1002/2015WR018209

Efforts to model future lake levels are continually being improved, with recent studies indicating greater variability in lake-level fluctuations.

A.D. Gronewold and R.B. Rood, Recent water level changes across Earth’s largest lake system and implications for future variability, Journal of Great Lakes Research, doi: 10.1016/j.jglr.2018.10.012

Algal Blooms

The formation, extent, and severity of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and hypoxic dead zones are made worse by increases in precipitation, warmer lake temperatures, and earlier lake stagnation.

McElwee, P.D., S.L. Carter, K.J.W. Hyde, J.M. West, K. Akamani, A.L. Babson, G. Bowser, J.B. Bradford, J.K. Costanza, T.M. Crimmins, S.C. Goslee, S.K. Hamilton, B. Helmuth, S. Hoagland, F.-A.E. Hoover, M.E. Hunsicker, R. Kashuba, S.A. Moore, R.C. Muñoz, G. Shrestha, M. Uriarte, and J.L. Wilkening, 2023: Ch. 8. Ecosystems, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH8

Wuebbles, D., Cardinale, B., Cherkauer, K., Davidson-Arnott, R., Hellmann, J., Infante, D., Johnson, L., and de Loë, R. 2019. An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Great Lakes by Scientists and Experts from Universities and Institutions in the Great Lakes Region. Environmental Law & Policy Center. https://elpc.org/resources/the-impacts-of-climate-change-on-the-greatlakes

Wells, M.L., Trainer, V.L., Smayda, T.J., Karlson, B.S.O., Trick, C.G., Kudela, R.M. and Cochlan, W.P. 2015. Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future. Harmful Algae, 49, 68-93.

Michalak, A.M., E.J. Anderson, D. Beletsky, S. Boland, N.S. Bosch, T.B. Bridgeman, J.D. Chaffin, K. Cho, R. Confesor, I. Daloğlu, J.V. DePinto, M.A. Evans, G.L. Fahnenstiel, L. He, J.C. Ho, L. Jenkins, T.H. Johengen, K.C. Kuo, E. LaPorte, X. Liu, M.R. McWilliams, M.R. Moore, D.J. Posselt, R.P. Richards, D. Scavia, A.L. Steiner, E. Verhamme, D.M. Wright, and M.A. Zagorski, 2013: Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110 (16), 6448–6452. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1216006110

Warmer surface water temperatures and earlier spring warm-up cause lake stratification to occur earlier and last longer, which allow for HABs and hypoxic conditions to persist longer due to the lack of mixing.

Shuter, B. J., J. Trumpickas, and C. K. Minns, 2009: Forecasting impacts of climate change on Great Lakes surface water temperatures. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 35, 454.

Kling, G., Hayhoe, K., Johnson, L., Magnuson, J., Polasky, S., Robinson, S., Shuter, B., Wander, M., Wuebbles, D., Zak, D., Lindroth, R., Moser, S., and Wilson, M. 2003. Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America, Washington, D.C. https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/greatlakes_final.pdf

Hondzo, M., and Stefan, H. 1993. Regional Water Temperature Characteristics Of Lakes Subjected To Climate Change. Climatic Change 24 (3): 187-211. doi:10.1007/bf01091829.

Kraemer, B. M., Anneville, O., Chandra, S., Dix, M., Kuusisto, E., Livingstone, D.M. and McIntyre, P.B. 2015. Morphometry and average temperature affect lake stratification responses to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 4981-4988.

Increases in annual rainfall and extreme rain events generate more runoff from surrounding land and sewer overflows, increasing nutrient loading in the lakes.

Kunkel, K. E., L. E. Stevens, S. E. Stevens, L. Sun, E. Janssen, D. Wuebbles, S. D. Hilberg, M. S. Timlin, L. Stoecker, N. E. Westcott, and J. G. Dobson, 2013: Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the National Climate Assessment: Part 3. Climate of the Midwest U.S. 142-3

Michalak, A. M., and Coauthors, 2013: Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Wisconsin’s Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation. 2011. Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts. Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, Wisconsin

Hayhoe, K., and D. J. Weubbles, 2008: Climate Change and Chicago: Projections and Potential Impacts. Report for the City of Chicago.Karl, T. R., J. M. Melilo, and T. C. Peterson, 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. USGCRP

USEPA, cited 2011: Great Lakes – Basic Information. [Available online at 17. Michalak”>http://www.epa.gov/glnpo/basicinfo.html.]

Fish & Wildlife

Rising temperatures provide more favorable conditions for new and invasive species to proliferate in the region, which increases resource competition with native species.

Fuller, P.L. and Whelan, G.E. 2018. The flathead catfish invasion of the Great Lakes. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 44, 1081-1092.

Cline, T. J., Bennington, V., and Kitchell, J. F. 2013. Climate change expands the spatial extent and duration of preferred thermal habitat for Lake Superior fishes. PLoS One 8:8

Kornis, M.S., Mercado-Silva, N., and Vander Zanden, M.J. 2012. Twenty years of invasion: a review of round goby Neogobius melanostomus biology, spread and ecological implications. Journal of Fish Biology, 80(2) 235-285.

Warming lake temperatures diminish certain cold-water fish species, causing their habitat ranges to shift northward.

Alofs, K., and Jackson, D. 2015. The Abiotic And Biotic Factors Limiting Establishment Of Predatory Fishes At Their Expanding Northern Range Boundaries In Ontario, Canada. Global Change Biology 21 (6): 2227-2237. doi:10.1111/gcb.12853.

Alofs, K., Jackson, D., and Lester, N. 2014. Ontario Freshwater Fishes Demonstrate Differing Range-Boundary Shifts In A Warming Climate. Diversity And Distributions 20 (2): 123-136. doi:10.1111/ddi.12130.

Dove-Thompson, D., Lewis, C., Gray, P.., Chu, C., and Dunlop, W. 2011. A Summary of the Effects of Climate Change on Ontario’s Aquatic Ecosystems. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, 68. https://files.ontario.ca/environmentand-energy/aquatics-climate/stdprod_088243.pdf

Declining ice coverage leaves shorelines, ecosystems, and spawning areas increasingly exposed to erosion.

Mackey, S.D. 2012. Great Lakes Nearshore and Coastal Systems. In J. Winkler, J. Andresen, J. Hatfield, D. Bidwell, & D. Brown (Coordinators) U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Technical Input Report. http://glisa.msu.edu/docs/NCA/MTIT_Coastal.pdf.

Magnuson J.J., K.E. Webster, R.A. Assel, C.J. Bowser, P.J. Dillon, J.G. Eaton, H.E. Evans, E.J. Fee, R.I Hall, L.R. Mortsch, D.W. Schindler, and F.H. Quinn. 1997: Potential effects of climate change on aquatic systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield Region. Hydrological Processes, 11, 825-871

Forests

As temperatures rise, the distribution and composition of tree species will change and shift northward.

Domke, G.M., C.J. Fettig, A.S. Marsh, M. Baumflek, W.A. Gould, J.E. Halofsky, L.A. Joyce, S.D. LeDuc, D.H. Levinson, J.S. Littell, C.F. Miniat, M.H. Mockrin, D.L. Peterson, J. Prestemon, B.M. Sleeter, and C. Swanston, 2023: Ch. 7. Forests. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH7

Vose, J.M., C.F. Miniat, C.H. Luce, H. Asbjornsen, P.V. Caldwell, J.L Campbell, G.E. Grant, D.J. Isaak, S.P. Loheide li, and G. Sun, 2016: Ecohydrological implications of drought for forests in the United States. Forest Ecology and Management, 380, 335-345. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.03.025

Urban forest stressors will be amplified by shifting trends, including exposure to pests and diseases, more frequent heat waves and drought, increased atmospheric pollution, urban heat island effects, salt damage, and variable water supplies.

Piana, M.R., C.C. Pregitzer, and R.A. Hallett, 2021: Advancing management of urban forested natural areas: Toward an urban silviculture? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 19 (9), 526–535. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2389

Sturrock, R.N., S.J. Frankel, A.V. Brown, P.E. Hennon, J.T. Kilejunas, K.J. Lewis, J.J. Worrall, and A.J. Woods, 2011: Climate change and forest diseases. Plant Pathology, 60 (1), 133-149. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02406.x

Local wildfire risk during flash droughts is likely to increase, especially in grasslands. Smoke from continental and regional wildfires can lead to poor air quality.

Transportation

More extreme heat events may increase the risk of heat damage to roadways and railroads.

Liban, C.B., R. Kafalenos, L. Alessa, S. Anenberg, M. Chester, J. DeFlorio, F.J. Dóñez, A. Flannery, M.R. Sanio, B.A. Scott, and A.M.K. Stoner, 2023: Ch. 13. Transportation. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH13

Markolf, S.A., C. Hoehne, A. Fraser, M.V. Chester, and B.S. Underwood, 2019: Transportation resilience to climate change and extreme weather events—Beyond risk and robustness. Transport Policy, 74, 174–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.11.003

Tamerius, J.D., X. Zhou, R Mantilla, and T. Greenfield-Huitt, 2016: Precipitation effects on motor vehicle crashes vary by space, time, and environmental conditions. Weather, Climate, and Society, 8 (4), 399-407. doi: 10.1175/wcas-d-16-0009.1

Transportation Research Board and National Research Council, 2008: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation: Special Report 290. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 296 pp. https://doi.org/10.17226/12179

More extreme precipitation may compromise transportation routes and damage infrastructure.

Winguth, A., J.H. Lee, and Y. Ko, 2015: Climate change/extreme weather vulnerability and risk assessment for transportation infrastructure in Dallas and Tarrant counties. North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) and Federal Highway Administration, Arlington, TX, and Washington, DC, 53 pp.

Reduced ice cover and shorter ice seasons may allow some shipping lanes to open earlier and longer.

Millerd, F., 2011: The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping. Climatic Change

Low lake levels can affect navigation channels and reduce the maximum loads carried by vessels, which amounts to substantial monetary losses per transit.

Sousounis, P., and J. M. Bisanz, 2000: Preparing for a Changing Climate. The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change: Great Lakes. University of Michigan, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences Department

Agriculture

The frost-free (i.e., growing) season increased by an average of 18 days in the U.S. Great Lakes region from 1951 to 2024, and the season may extend up to 50 days longer by the late century.

See the Historical Trend Calculations statement at the end of the page.

See the Future Trend Calculations statement at the end of the page.

Milder winter and spring temperatures will lead to earlier growth and seasonal development of overwintering perennial and annual crops.

Leakey, A.D.B. (2009): Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the future of C4 crops for food and fuel. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 2333-2343. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2008.1517

In the long term, the negative effects of increasing storm activity, flooding, extreme heat, drought risks, and pests may outweigh the near-term crop yield benefits from warmer conditions.

Hatfield, J.L (2014) Agriculture in the Midwest. In: Climate Change in the Midwest: A Synthesis Report for the National Climate Assessment, J. A. Winkler, J.A. Andresen, J.L. Hatfield, D. Bidwell, and D. Brown, eds., Island Press

Karl T.R., Melilo J.M., Peterson T.C. (2009) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. USGCRP

Kimball B.A., Hatfield J.L., Izaurralde R.C., Thomson A.M., Boote K.J., Ort D., Ziska L.H., Wolfe D. (2011) Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Crop Production. Agronomy Journal 103:351

Serbin S.P., Kucharik C.J. (2008) Impacts of recent climate change on Wisconsin corn and soybean yield trends. Environmental Research Letters 3:034003

Winkler J.A., Andresen J.A., Guentchev G., Kriegel R.D. (2002) Possible impacts of projected temperature change on commercial fruit production in the Great Lakes region. Journal of Great Lakes Research 28:608-625

Water Availability

Despite increasing precipitation, land surfaces in the Great Lakes region may become drier due to increasing temperatures and evaporation rates.

Payton, E.A., A.O. Pinson, T. Asefa, L.E. Condon, L.-A.L. Dupigny-Giroux, B.L. Harding, J. Kiang, D.H. Lee, S.A. McAfee, J.M. Pflug, I. Rangwala, H.J. Tanana, and D.B. Wright, 2023: Ch. 4. Water. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH4

Albano, C.M., J.T. Abatzoglou, D.J. McEvoy, J.L. Huntington, C.G. Morton, M.D. Dettinger, and T.J. Ott, 2022: A Multidataset assessment of climatic drivers and uncertainties of recent trends in evaporative demand across the continental United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 23 (4), 505–519. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-21-0163.1

Pan, Z., and S. C. Pryor, 2009. Overview: Hydrologic regimes. In Understanding Climate Change: Regional Climate Variability, Predictability, and Change in Midwestern USA, S. Pryor, ed., Indiana University Press, 88-99

More frequent summer droughts could affect soil moisture, surface waters, and groundwater supply, and the seasonal distribution of the water cycle will likely shift.

Karl T.R., Melilo J.M., Peterson T.C. (2009) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. USGCRP

Hayhoe K. (2007) Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the U.S. Northeast. Climate Dynamics 28:381–407

Wuebbles D.J. (2006) Executive Summary Updated 2005: Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. Union of Concerned Scientists

Water Quality & Stormwater Management

Projected increases in droughts, severe storms, and flooding events can amplify the risk of erosion, sewage overflow, interference with transportation, and flood damage.

Chu, E.K., M.M. Fry, J. Chakraborty, S.-M. Cheong, C. Clavin, M. Coffman, D.M. Hondula, D. Hsu, V.L. Jennings, J.M. Keenan, A. Kosmal, T.A. Muñoz-Erickson, and N.T.O. Jelks, 2023: Ch. 12. Built environment, urban systems, and cities. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH12

Cook, L.M., S. McGinnis, and C. Samaras, 2020: The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change. Climatic Change, 159 (2), 289–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02649-6

Winters, B. A., J. Angel, C. Ballerine, J. Byard, A. Flegel, D. Gambill, E. Jenkins, S. McConkey, M. Markus, B. A. Bender, and M. J. O’Toole, 2015: Report for the Urban Flooding Awareness Act. 89 pp., Illinois Department of Natural Resources

Future changes in land use could have an impact on water quality and be further exacerbated by shifting trends.

Thornton, P.E., B.C. Reed, G.Z. Xian, L. Chini, A.E. East, J.L. Field, C.M. Hoover, B. Poulter, S.C. Reed, G. Wang, and Z. Zhu, 2023: Ch. 6. Land cover and land-use change. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH6

Szkokan-Emilson, E. J., B. W. Kielstra, S. E. Arnott, S. A. Watmough, J. M. Gunn, and A. J. Tanentzap, 2017: Dry conditions disrupt terrestrial–aquatic linkages in northern catchments. Global Change Biology, 23, 117–126, doi:10.1111/gcb.13361

Energy & Industry

Reduced summer water availability due to drought and drier conditions may interfere with some industrial operations (e.g., hydropower, thermoelectric, and nuclear plant cooling).

Zamuda, C.D., D.E. Bilello, J. Carmack, X.J. Davis, R.A. Efroymson, K.M. Goff, T. Hong, A. Karimjee, D.H. Loughlin, S. Upchurch, and N. Voisin, 2023: Ch. 5. Energy supply, delivery, and demand. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH5

Zamuda, C., D.E. Bilello, G. Conzelmann, E. Mecray, A. Satsangi, V. Tidwell, and B.J. Walker, 2018: Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand. In Impacts, Risks, and in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 174–201. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH4

Warmer temperatures and more frequent heat waves will likely increase electricity demands related to cooling, particularly in urban areas during summer months.

Obringer, R., R. Nateghi, D. Maia-Silva, S. Mukherjee, V. Cr, D.B. McRoberts, and R. Kumar, 2022: Implications of increasing household air conditioning use across the United States under a warming climate. Earth’s Future, 10 (1), e2021EF002434. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002434

Larsen, K., J. Larsen, M. Delgado, Whitney Herndon, and Shashank Mohan, 2017: Assessing the Effect of Rising Temperatures: The Cost of Climate Change to the U.S. Power Sector. Rhodium Group, New York, NY, 27 pp.

Tourism & Recreation

Areas that rely on winter tourism and recreation will be impacted by reduced ice and snow cover from warming winters.

Chin. N, K. Byun, A.F. Hamlet, K.A. Cherkauer, 2018: Assessing potential winter weather response to climate change and implications for tourism in the U.S. Great Lakes and Midwest. Hydrology: Regional Studies. 10 (19), 42-56. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.06.005

Warmer temperatures and a longer summer season may increase demand for beaches; however, coastal areas will face increasing stressors from algal blooms, fluctuating water levels, and erosion.

Angel, J., C. Swanston, B.M. Boustead, K.C. Conlon, K.R. Hall, J.L. Jorns, K.E. Kunkel, M.C. Lemos, B. Lofgren, T.A. Ontl, J. Posey, K. Stone, G. Takle, and D. Todey, 2018: Midwest. In Impacts, Risks, and in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 872–940. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH21

Summer tourism may grow as the region warms, but as temperature and humidity continue to increase, conditions may become unfavorable for many recreational activities.

Many coldwater species of fish important to recreation (e.g., whitefish and lake trout) may decline, while populations of warmwater species are likely to grow.

Collingsworth, P. D., Bunnell, D. B., Murray, M. W., Kao, Y., Feiner, Z. S., Claramunt, R. M., . . . Ludsin, S. A. (2017). Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 27(2), 363-391. doi: 10.1007/s11160-017-9480-3

Historical Trend Calculations

These calculations use data from the NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Divisions and Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCNd) Station Observations. The observed temperature trends are calculated by a weighted spatial average for each climate division within the Great Lakes states (i.e., Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). The weights are determined by the spatial area of each of the climate divisions compared to the overall region. The observed precipitation, extreme precipitation, and growing degree days are calculated by spatially averaging the GLISA quality-controlled GHCNd stations within the Great Lakes region. To be included in the analysis, these stations require at least 70 years of high-quality observational data during the period of 1951-2024. More information is available at GLISA’s Great Lakes Climatologies webpage with current trends.

Future Trend Calculations

Future climate projections are from a set of six dynamically downscaled models that were designed specifically for use in the Great Lakes region. These dynamically downscaled data were produced by the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and include six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) version 5 GCMs downscaled to a 25-km spatial resolution according to the RCP8.5 scenario using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model Version Four (RegCM4) coupled to a 1-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes. The numbers reported are for the amount of change predicted averaged over the entire region (40°N to 50°N and -75°E to -95°E) over land only (Figure 1). Data directly over the Great Lakes was omitted in the regional average of temperature and precipitation, for example, because values over the lakes are not as trustworthy as over land. The Great Lakes Ensemble is a collection of future projections that have been vetted for their representation of important lake-land-atmosphere processes in our region. The Great Lakes Ensemble currently consists of the dynamically downscaled climate projections for the Great Lakes region, produced by the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison and GLISA’s assessment of the CMIP5 models and how each model represents the Great Lakes.

Map of the area used for calculating the historical and future trends in the Great Lakes region.

These data are available for download (netCDF files) or viewable in maps at the link below. Other variables and temporal frequencies (e.g., sub-daily) are available upon request as raw netCDF output.

Link to Data: http://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/dynamical-downscaling/index.php

Notaro, Michael, Val Bennington, and Steve Vavrus. “Dynamically Downscaled Projections of Lake-Effect Snow in the Great Lakes Basin.” Journal of Climate. 28.4 (2014): 1661-1684.

Notaro, Michael, et al. “Simulation of Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms across the Great Lakes Basin by RegCM4: Synoptic Climatology and Variability.” Monthly Weather Review. 141 (2013b): 1990-2014.