The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released informational briefs detailing the impact of possible El Niño conditions (warmer than average water surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) on the upcoming 2018/19 winter for the Great Lakes region, Midwest region, and Missouri River Basin. NOAA currently states a 70-75% chance of El Niño conditions developing in the coming months. In general, above-average winter temperatures can be expected during El Niño conditions – should they develop – over the range of these briefing locations, with varying impacts on precipitation: for instance, while the outlook for the Great Lakes region points toward less than average winter precipitation, areas of the southern Missouri River Basin could see increased snowfall.
To read the briefs in their entirety, please visit this link to the U.S. Drought Portal (the Midwest report will be uploaded soon).
For further technical information on El Niño conditions as well as real-time updates on temperature and precipitation information, please visit the resources below: