Coast to Coast: Using Scenario Planning to Build Resilience to Compound Flooding in the Southeast and Great Lakes Regions
Read a press release on this project here.
Project Summary
Communities in the Southeast and Great Lakes regions of the United States are increasingly vulnerable to climate impacts and socioeconomic stressors. Both regions face difficult, complex decisions on how to prioritize and invest in coastal infrastructure to adapt to sea level rise and varying lake levels. In both regions, the co-occurrence of these events (i.e., heavy precipitation and elevated/varying coastal water levels) lead to destructive compound flood risks. Frontline coastal communities in both regions are the most vulnerable to these impacts, but have limited capacity to adapt. The similarities and differences between regions present an opportunity to investigate how an engagement and planning approach developed in one region may be adapted to another.
The overarching goal of this project is to build capacity for resilience to flooding and inundation across two different coastal environments: the Great Lakes and the Southeast. To accomplish this, the project team will do a comparative study that assesses a stakeholder engagement model (scenario planning, SP) across different community demographics and compound flooding environments. The project has two distinct objectives: 1) implementing the SP approach to inform infrastructure and adaptation decisions associated with compound flooding in frontline communities; and 2) advancing the SP approach to address its existing barriers and limitations.
SP is a method to describe and incorporate uncertainty into decision-making that GLISA, the Great Lakes CAP/RISA team, has adapted and applied to a range of climate adaptation problems including compound events. We will partner with one frontline coastal community in each of the Great Lakes and Southeast regions in partnership with Georgia Sea Grant to adapt and implement the SP approach to sea level rise and lake level variability, while also exploring how to extend and amend the approach to this decision context and new geography.
Project funded by the NOAA Climate Program Office through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
PROJECT ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Anticipated accomplishments and outcomes of this ongoing project include:
- Suite of climate scenarios tailored with local information and impacts, (i.e., sea level rise or lake levels) and management concerns.
- Series of workshops with practitioners and community members in one Great Lakes community and one Southeast community. Including a community-focused workshop where participants contribute their lived knowledge of place, their perception, needs, and priorities regarding limitations of data and reasonable responses.
- Guidebook detailing principles of best practice for integrating climate model information into impact models and the ethical considerations of the application of climate model information in terms of communicating uncertainty.
- Pilot evaluation framework to assess participant experiences and track outcomes.
RESEARCH FINDINGS
- Research findings are forthcoming.
GLISA CONTRIBUTION
Over a one-year period, GLISA will analyze and present on:
- Observed climate changes including historical trends, research topics, confidence and uncertainty
- Projected climate changes with a specific focus on heat and precipitation for the Lower Peninsula
- Guidance on interpreting projections
- Information on other climate variables such as ice storms, wind, and water levels
Project Partners
- University of Georgia/Georgia Sea Grant
GLISA Contact
Jenna Jorns, GLISA Co-Director, jljorns@umich.edu