Predicting the Onset of Seasonal Ice Cover for Apostle Islands National Lakeshore
Predicting the Onset of Seasonal Ice Cover for Apostle Islands National Lakeshore
Funded by GLISA Internal / NOAA Climate Program Office
Project Summary
The Apostle Islands National Lakeshore (APIS) in northern Wisconsin on Lake Superior is home to majestic ice caves. They are very popular but are only open in winters when it’s safe for visitors to walk across the ice of the frozen lake. A 2018 report by the National Park Service estimates over 250,000 visitors to the park that year, generating $40 million in visitor spending and 576 jobs. Ice cover at Apostle Islands used to be a sure thing, but starting in the 1990s a period of variability began with several years with no safe ice cover due to climate change that continues today. This kind of uncertainty created problems for park managers and visitors. In response, GLISA and collaborators worked with the National Park Service (NPS) to forecast the first date of solid ice in the park. This work ensures the continued economic success of not only the Park itself but also of the surrounding community that benefits from the visitors. The model provides a stepping stone towards a broad range of applications of similar models for supporting regional management decisions in light of evolving climate conditions; the methodology is transferable to not only other locations in the Great Lakes but to any coastline domestically and abroad that has ice cover concerns. It also has implications for large and small-craft vessel navigation, fishing, and hunting. NPS was engaged throughout this process to identify the specific geographic area of concern, to define what ‘adequate ice cover’ means for their decision-making purposes.
Project Accomplishments
- New statistical model that simulates the onset of seasonal ice cover along the Park shoreline
- GLISA impact story
- Journal article:
Research findings
GLISA developed a new statistical model that simulates the onset of seasonal ice cover along the APIS shoreline. The new approach can reliably predict months in advance whether ice will form in a given winter, as well as the timing of the forecast. The NPS uses the predictions to decide staffing needs for the upcoming season and what budget is needed to support this staff. The data then informs what level of preparedness this staff needs, depending on when the ice season is predicted to start.
Recent work, led by Dr. Drew Gronewold with student Karl Kirchner, refined the previous model and closely linked the ice conditions with temperature in Duluth, Minnesota and the Arctic Oscillation. In addition to the ability to predict the local ice conditions, the research has contributed to defining climate scenarios for the region. A regime shift, since the late 1990s, shows a generally warmer region, sporadically interrupted by cold air outbreaks. These cold air outbreaks can have a lasting influence on the region because of the lasting impacts of ice cover. This helps to frame the plausible scenarios associated with a secular warming trending and changes in the variability of the Arctic Oscillation.
GLISA Contribution
This research project was led and executed by GLISA’s physical sciences team.
Project Partners
- NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL)
- US Department of Interior National Park Service (DOI NPS) Apostle Islands National Lakeshore
GLISA Contact
Jenna Jorns, Program Manager, jljorns@umich.edu