Projected Changes in Frequency of Major Tree Fruit Diseases in the Central Great Lakes Region

Projected Changes in Frequency of Major Tree Fruit Diseases in the Central Great Lakes Region

Funded by GLISA Internal (NOAA RISA)

Project Summary

Tree fruit production in the Great Lakes region is a significant factor in the region’s agricultural economy. The modification and moderation of regional climate, particularly in the areas leeward of the lakes, allows for the commercial production of specialty crops not common in other areas of similar latitude. Previous studies in the region have identified significant trends of several hydro-climatic variables over the past several decades with both over-land and over-lake measurements, and there is concern in the agricultural industry that these trends may continue in the future. In this study, GLISA considers the potential impacts of a shifting climate on three major tree fruit diseases – fire blight, cherry leaf spot, and apple scab – for the historical (1980-2017) and projected future (2040-2059 and 2080-2099) time frames. The frequency and severity of these diseases are heavily dependent on diurnal variations and combinations of air temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Future climate projections were obtained from multiple Global Climate Models dynamically downscaled through a Regional Climate Model.

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Project Accomplishments

  • Presentations
    • Baule, W., J. Andresen, and A. Pollyea. Projected Changes in the Frequency of Major Tree Fruit Diseases in the Central Great Lakes Region. 16th Annual Climate Prediction and Applications Workshop, Fargo, ND, May 2018.
  • Summary of findings included in a book chapter
    • Andresen, J.A., W.J. Baule, 2020. Temperate Fruit Trees and Grapes. In: Agronomy Monographs, 60: Agroclimatology: Linking Agriculture to Climate. Eds.: J. Hatfield, M. Sivakumar, J. Prueger,. ASA, CSSA, and SSSA, Madison, WI. doi:10.2134/agronmonogr60.2014.0035.

Research findings

  • The primary change that we expect is a distinct shift to earlier peak timing of infection in the tree fruit diseases examined. Warmer temperatures, generally resulting in reduced relative humidity, suggests decreases in the frequency of Apple Scab and Cherry Leaf Spot under projected climate conditions.  
    • The current method of downscaling (delta method) preserves the historical frequency of precipitation and diurnal patterns of temperature and relative humidity in projected climates. Other, more sophisticated, downscaling methods need to be examined as they may impact the results, especially if the frequency of precipitation is affected.
    • Due to the nature of tree fruit production, decisions made now have economic and agricultural implications 25-30 years into the future.

GLISA Contribution

This research was funded by GLISA and carried out by GLISA Co-PI Jeff Andresen and graduate student William Baule.

GLISA Contact

William (B.J.) Baule, Climatologist, [email protected]

Jeff Andresen, GLISA Co-PI, [email protected]

 

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