LAKE ERIE CLIMATOLOGY

Lake Erie Overview

Located along the U.S. Canadian border, Lake Erie is the most Southern of the five Great Lakes, connecting to Lake Ontario through the Niagara River. Lake Erie is the smallest Great Lake by volume. Lake Erie is also the shallowest of the Great Lakes, based on its bathymetry. However, lake levels are highly variable, and are affected by changes in precipitation, runoff, evaporation, and ice cover.

Over-lake precipitation varies seasonally, with higher totals occurring in the late spring, summer, and early fall months (Figure 5). This seasonality aligns with the seasonal variability of lake levels, with the highest levels occurring at the same time as the greatest total precipitation. Precipitation totals vary annually as well as seasonally, and do not always follow the same pattern year to year.

Runoff rates follow the same general monthly pattern, but can vary in magnitude from year to year (Figure 6).  Peak runoff occurs in late spring and early summer, primarily due to snowpack melt.  Runoff amounts are also influenced by impervious surfaces such as concrete, that prevent water from entering the soil below, and agricultural practices within the basin.

Evaporation rates follow the same general monthly pattern from year to year. Maximum evaporation occurs in the late fall and winter months with minimum evaporation occurring in the late spring and early summer months (Figure 7).  Because water has a higher heat capacity than air, the lake stays warmer in the fall as air temperature falls. This leads to increased evaporation due to the greater difference in temperature between the air and water. Evaporation is also closely related to high and low ice years. When evaporation rates are high in the fall, signifying more heat loss, it creates conditions for a year with high ice cover. Cold lake surface temperatures and high ice cover then reduce evaporation. The same is true for lower evaporation rates in the fall, signifying less heat loss, and low ice cover years. These conditions can then lead to increased evaporation in the following months (see Ice Cover Overview page for more information).

Precipitation, evaporation, and runoff are combined in total net basin supply for Lake Erie (Figure 8). 

There are multiple factors that lead to the differing levels of ice cover between the different lakes including depth, surface area, and latitude. In most years, Lake Erie freezes earlier than the other lakes and experiences the highest surface ice coverage, due to its comparatively shallow depth and warmer temperatures (Figure 13).

During the winter months, Lake Erie experiences varying levels of ice coverage. On average, higher ice coverage is observed closer to the coast and channels due to more shallow water and protection from winds and currents (Figure 14). Below average ice cover was observed during most years in the past decade for most of the lake surface area. Though there were individual years with high ice cover, such as 2014 and 2019, the overall decadal average was low.

When considering annual maximum or average ice cover in the Great Lakes, it is common to treat each “ice year” as the period between December (of the previous year) and May (of the current year), as this is when freezing events occur in the region. Figure 15 demonstrates this, with peak ice cover between February and March almost no ice cover in the beginning of December and the middle of May.

There is variability in Lake Erie ice cover throughout the ice year as well as between different years. Natural modes of climate variability can also influence ice coverage. Years with strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events contribute to lower maximum ice coverage, while years with polar vortex intrusions generally lead to higher maximum ice coverage (Figure 16).

Surface temperatures of Lake Erie follow a monthly pattern with the warmest temperatures occurring in late summer and early fall and the coolest temperatures occurring in late winter and early spring(Figure 17). Overall, the surface temperature of Lake Erie has increased.

Despite year to year variability, an overall warming trend in air temperature has been observed in the Lake Erie basin from 1948 to 2014 (Figure 18).

Despite an overall warming trend, very warm or very cold years still occur due to annual variability (Figure 19). There are extreme high and low average temperatures throughout the period of record, but recent average temperatures are generally higher than in the past.